The US economy sits in an inflationary recession, similar to the early 1970s, due to the oil and commodity price shocks. At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to combat inflation. This inflation, of course, the government created by imposing ESG Policies that limited the expansion of energy production in the U.S., while at the same time legislating massive stimulus and pushing the Federal Reserve to underwrite the government’s deficits through monetary printing. With Inflation now on the political front burner, the Federal Reserve stands under pressure to focus on its other role: “Price Stability” and to put in place Tapering and Interest Rate rises. This will inevitably lead to further contraction of the economy, which will then feed back into the political realm as Unemployment rises.
This economic scenario comes against a background of a New Cold War. The New Cold War with China and Russia continues to see the US adopt the playbook from the original Cold War, that of Containment. And to gain an edge in this Great Power rivalry, the US continues to pursue massive spending to maintain its military and economic edge. For countries and companies, hard choices will lie ahead as this rivalry grows and each country moves to advantage its economy at the expense of the other in a rivalry that will define the next few decades. These conflicting economic and geopolitical forces will impact the US and Global Economy in 2023 and beyond, providing a whirlwind of conflicting impacts on interest rates, inflation, economic growth, business, and politics.
If you are going to be in Philadelphia and would like to attend in person register here: PA: Economic Outlook Breakfast.
SPEAKER BIO:Paul Sloate, Founder & CEO of Green Drake Advisors will provide timely insights into the change in Global Central Banks’ Policies, the shaky recovery of the US and Global Economy, and the rising impacts of the new Cold War between China and Russia on one side and Europe, much of Asia, and the United States on the other. Paul’s career spans almost 40 years advising individuals, families, businesses, and institutions on wealth management, investment management, and global economics, serving in senior roles with companies such as Wellington Management and BlackRock Financial Management. With real-world experience from investments in over 2,000 companies, Paul possesses a unique perspective on the reality of economic cycles, government policies, geopolitics, and their impact. Mr. Sloate has appeared on TV on numerous occasions to share his expertise with the public and hosted Money Matters TV for many years. Currently, Mr. Sloate serves on the Boards of several private companies and Guest Lectures at the U.S. Army War College. In 2021, Mr. Sloate attended the United States National Strategy Seminar, as one of a select number of civilian participants chosen for their knowledge and insights.